What Will the 2024 Harvest Bring?

The official global production forecast is 3,000,000– 3,200,000 tons, with Spain expected to lead with 1,300.000 – 1,500,000 tons, followed by Turkey at 300,000 –320,000 tones, Greece at 230,000–290,000 tones, Tunisia at 260,000–280,000 Italy at 180.000–200,000, and Portugal at 160,000–180,000 tons.  This looks better than last year.

I have started to see some extremely encouraging reports about what to expect from 2024 olive oil production – some even going so far as to suggest that the current astronomically high prices could be set to fall to half their current level. However, I have to say that in my personal opinion this is rather optimistic, after all it is pretty rare for such a large price drop for a product that is still in demand.

So I decided to do my own research contacting leading producers in the Spain, Italy and Greece -information from Tunisia is less easy to access, partly as the harvest is usually later than in Europe. The results are interesting. As you would expect not everywhere has been experiencing the same favourable conditions during the growing season.  In Puglia conditions have not been too good and this could be a serious problem for Italian olive oil as this is by far the largest producing region of Italy.

Spain

What happens here is, of course, of paramount importance.  Spain is responsible for at least half of the world’s production of olive oil, so production levels here obviously have a huge effect on world prices. In fact, things are looking quite good. Last week the Junta de Andalucia published its prediction for the 2024/25 harvest. They predict production levels of 1,021,000 tons for Andalucia alone of which 445,000 come from Jaén. If these figures are correct, theoretically Spanish production would be around 1,250,000 Tons.  However, there are those in the region who think the Junta’s predictions have been quite conservative, perhaps trying to prevent the price of olive oil from suffering a sharp drop that would negatively affect olive growers. One leading producer thinks that, barring sudden bad weather conditions, the total production will be closer to 1.4 million tons.

Andalucian Estates such Solar Romero, Castilla de Canena and Piqualia are also cautiously optimistic. Conditions in the Spring were good with moderate temperatures and abundant rains afterwards. The summer months were hot but not excessively so and the fruit has been able to develop correctly.  In general, the year has been much better than 2024 when most growers experienced one of the worst years ever.

Reports from further north in Zaragoza, where the harvest is about to start, are also looking good with growers expecting both higher quantities as well as better quality from the olive crop. However, there is still time for unexpected changes in the weather patterns over Spain and things could change for the worse.

Italy

Conditions here have varied a good deal during the growing season with some regions faring better than others and some changing course during the year. Charles Carey, The Olive Oil Merchant, reports that Marina Colona was extremely worried in June that this year’s harvest was going to be a complete disaster but by late September the weather had returned to normal and it had started to rain. The olives were filling out, and current predictions are that the harvest will be at least as good as, and hopefully, maybe better than last year. This is indeed good news as the Colonna estate in the Molise not only supplies Waitrose and a range of specialist groceries it also creates own-brand oils for up-market department stores in the UK and elsewhere.

Central regions of Italy such as Tuscany, Le Marche and Abbruzzo are expected to give the best results this year. Francesca Petrini, who’s olive groves are situated in the Marche, is pleased about the prospects for this year.  “Despite a long summer drought, our olives have grown steadily and safely due to rainfalls at the end of August and September and luckily no olive fly attack was noticeable during the summertime. The olives are simply perfect and intact!” She expects the quantities will be larger this year compared in crop 2023/2024. Maybe even a doubled olive production!

Conditions in Tuscany have also been quite good which is welcome news even though this is a relatively small producing region it does produce some excellent oils. Frantoio Franci report experiencing quite a good year. “we had rain at the right moment in spring and, even though the summer was very hot, September rains rehydrated the olives. At present we are a little worried about attacks from the fruit fly, since temperature and rain are now perfect for this parasite, but we are monitoring the situation. Generally speaking, it should be a good harvest, with normal but not abundant quantities of olives, we keep our fingers crossed for the next days.”

Frescobaldi, too, is cautiously happy about the prospects for the 2024 harvest.  “The beginning of Autumn weather was ideal for the production of fine quality EVOO in central Tuscany. Temperatures have been between 10°C at night and 23°C during the day. This exchange makes the olives develop high contents of polyphenols, and therefore intense and complex organoleptic characteristics of the oil inside the olives. The current weather conditions are ideal for the final growth of the olive and the beginning of harvest that will start shortly.

Unfortunately the situation is not the same in other parts of Italy. There reports that production expectations in Gargano Apulia will be down by 50%, in Bari/Andria down 30/40%, Basilicata down by 60% , Calabria down by 20-30% and Sicily 40-50%. This particularly bad news as Puglia is the main producing region of Italy

Greece

Cristina Stribacu at the Lia estate in central Greece reports that despite labour shortages and rising costs, farmers are hopeful for a strong harvest this year. ”As we approach the 2024-2025 olive harvest, there is renewed optimism, especially after the challenging 2023-2024 season. In Greece, last year’s production reached only 150,000 tons. Now, just days before the harvest of the native Koroneiki variety, the situation is mixed. Olive groves without irrigation show signs of stress and dryness, while irrigated groves look healthy. The olives are changing colour on the outside, but the fruit remains green inside. Early testing shows low acidity at 0.2% with a floral, green olive aroma. However, yields are still low, and more rain or irrigation is needed to boost oil production. Thanks to the long hot days, there has been no impact from the olive fly, leaving the fruits very clean.”

Prospects

So how is all this likely to affect us, the customer?  Well, if you are the sort of buyer who goes for higher quality oils from named estates you can check how the region from which they come has fared.  But, if like most people, you are more likely to buy branded or supermarket own label oils you will have to wait and see how the bad conditions in some of the olive oil world’s most prolific producing regions impact on possible shortages and so on prices. I think it is still a question of keep your fingers crossed and watch this space.